[MAPC-discuss] 8:30am WORT Wednesday

[Bob Reuschlein]

I will discuss this with Jan Miyasaki tomorrow morning.
Bob Reuschlein

“What is the 54 year Kondratiev Cycle?”
Socrates Café Discussion Topic, 6pm, Friday May 14, 2004.  Public
Welcome.
At Avol’s Bookstore (formerly Canterbury Bookstore) 315 W. Gorham St.
Bob Reuschlein will lead the discussion
http://www.realeconomy.com/generations.htm


“Kondratiev Wave” is a 54 year cycle of temperature, economic and
political events.
Iraq War 2003, Korean War 1950, Spanish American 1898, Mexican American
1846
THIS IS ONE EXAMPLE OF THE KONDRATIEV 54 YEAR CYCLE
1) Iraq started 53 years after Korea, which started 52 years after the
Spanish American War, which started 52 years after the Mexican American
War.
2) Using multiyear averages, the peak economic growth rate of the United
States before the last peak in 1952 was 1898, 54 years before.
Similarly the bottom economic growth rate before 1982 was in 1928, 54
years before.  Economic winter 1913-1940, summer 1940-1967, winter
1967-1994, summer 1994-2021, winter 2021-2048.
3) The Blizzard of 1996 in the Northeastern United States is the biggest
American Blizzard since the Blizzard of 1888 in the same area, 108 years
apart, an “every other” 54 year cycle event.  Temperature record: 1913
bottom, 1940 top, 1967 bottom, 1998 top.
4) I have a chart with over forty four such major modern Kondratiev
recurring events, about 15 in each category (political, economic,
natural)
Of the “unexplained” (not natural solar, presumably Green House Gas)
warming since 1860:  A Judith Lean article in 1997 estimates the
“unexplained” impact was 13% of the warming from 1860-1970 and 87% of
the warming from 1970-1996.
The temperature growth rate of one degree per century has suddenly
doubled to two degrees per century in the last two 55 year average
points.
Legend:  Solid line starts in 1882 (1880-1884 avg), ends in 2002
(2000-2004 avg).  Dotted line starts in 1907 (for 1880-1934 period),
ends in 1977 (for 1950-2004 period).
Each line is in five year increments, marked by the central year in the
5 or 55 year period.